Dimitar Bechev

Af­ter hold­ing a fifth na­tion­al vote in two years, Bul­gar­ia is nowhere near hav­ing a sta­ble gov­ern­ment.

But will ‘earth­quake diplo­ma­cy’ lead to a sus­tain­able part­ner­ship be­tween these neigh­bour­ing na­tions?

Putin’s de­ci­sion-mak­ing has set Rus­sia down a path that any suc­ces­sor would find dif­fi­cult to turn from.

The bal­ance of pow­er in the Eu­ro­pean Union is shift­ing east­wards.

While there are signs of war fa­tigue in Ger­man so­ci­ety, Berlin is un­like­ly to have a change of heart.

The Eu­ro­pean Po­lit­i­cal Com­mu­ni­ty could help draw Eu­ro­pean states in the east clos­er to Brus­sels. But it may not do more.

With the Krem­lin bogged down in war, Turkey is deft­ly ex­pand­ing its in­flu­ence — at Moscow’s cost.

Rus­sia is un­like­ly to pull Bul­gar­ia back into its im­me­di­ate sphere of in­flu­ence af­ter the events of last few months.

On April 26, Rus­sia stopped de­liv­er­ing gas to Bul­gar­ia and Poland. Sev­er­al weeks lat­er, both na­tions are do­ing fine.

The in­cum­bent pres­i­dent’s elec­toral vic­to­ry will have ma­jor con­se­quences both for Ser­bia and the wider re­gion.