Guma El-Gamaty

The EU’s in­co­her­ent pol­i­cy on Libya has al­lowed Rus­sia to gain a lot of ground just south of its shores.

Shift­ing dy­nam­ics on the ground in Libya have es­tab­lished Turkey and Rus­sia as the main pow­er-bro­kers in the con­flict.

Both in­ter­nal and ex­ter­nal ac­tors have un­der­mined UN ef­forts to keep the po­lit­i­cal process in Libya alive.

There are three pos­si­ble out­comes of the on­go­ing mil­i­tary con­flict in west­ern Libya.

Ef­forts to sta­bilise the sit­u­a­tion in Libya should start with curb­ing for­eign in­ter­fer­ence in the coun­try.

Libyan Gen­er­al Khal­i­fa Haf­tar may have sur­vived his ill­ness but the strug­gle for his seat has al­ready start­ed.

Re­gion­al in­ter­fer­ence is the most sig­nif­i­cant ob­sta­cle to a sus­tain­able peace and pros­per­ous fu­ture in Libya.

The cur­rent EU anti-mi­gra­tion and anti-ter­ror poli­cies to­wards Libya will only desta­bilise it fur­ther.

The UAE per­ceives the pos­si­bil­i­ty of a sta­ble, peace­ful and pros­per­ous Libya as a threat to its sta­tus in the re­gion.