Iran threatens Bab al-Mandeb closure: How would that affect world trade?
If the chokepoint were shut, along with the Strait of Hormuz, a quarter of the world’s energy and a giant chunk of Asia’s exports to Europe would be blocked.
A top adviser to Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has repeated a threat that the country’s allies could shut the Bab al-Mandeb shipping route, as Tehran has effectively done with the Strait of Hormuz.
The Bab al-Mandeb Strait connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and is a crucial waterway for global oil trade. Its importance has increased since Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 percent of the world’s oil and gas is shipped in peacetime.
Ali Akbar Velayati, a former Iranian foreign minister and veteran diplomat known for his influence within the establishment, warned on Monday on X, “the current security of the Bab al-Mandeb should not lead the enemy into a miscalculation”.
He added that “the Resistance has the capability to lock both waterways”, referring to the “axis of resistance” — a loose coalition of Iran-aligned groups, including the Houthis in Yemen, Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, among others.
This is not the first time that Velayati has threatened the US and Israel with the closure of the Bab al-Mandeb. It follows the first direct attacks by Iran and Israel against each other since the ceasefire on April 8 between Tehran on one side, and the US and Israel on the other.
From late evening on June 7, Iran and Israel have traded missile fire, threatening the already fragile truce, even as United States President Donald Trump has insisted that peace talks continue and could yield a breakthrough over the next few days.
Days after the US and Israel began the war on Iran on February 28, Tehran effectively closed down the Strait of Hormuz to ships from most countries. On April 13, days after the ceasefire came into place, the US launched a naval blockade of Iranian ports and ships trying to pass through the strait, further slashing traffic through the waterway.
But if the Bab al-Mandeb were also to be closed, it would impact more than the ongoing war – it could compound the global energy supply crisis caused by the conflict, deepening the economic turmoil being felt in factories, kitchens and at petrol stations around the world.
Where is the Bab al-Mandeb?
The strait is between Yemen to its northeast and Djibouti and Eritrea in the Horn of Africa to the southwest.
It connects the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean through the Gulf of Aden. It is 29km (18 miles) wide at its narrowest point, limiting traffic to two channels for inbound and outbound shipments and is effectively controlled by the Iran-backed Houthis.
The Yemen-based group is a central part of Iran’s “axis of resistance”.
Why is the Bab al-Mandeb important for the energy trade?
It is one of the world’s most important shipping routes.
The strait is a vital route through which Saudi Arabia sends its oil to Asia. When the Strait of Hormuz is open, the Bab al-Mandeb is also a crucial passageway for Gulf states besides Saudi Arabia to export their crude oil and gas to Europe via the Suez Canal or the Suez-Mediterranean (Sumed) Pipeline on Egypt’s Red Sea coast.
In 2024, about 4.1 billion barrels of crude oil and refined petroleum products passed through the strait – that is 5 percent of the global total.
If the Bab al-Mandeb and the Strait of Hormuz were both shut, that would block 25 percent – or a quarter of the world’s oil and gas supply.
It is not just fuel; about 10 percent of global trade sails through the Bab al-Mandeb, including containers shipped from China, India and other Asian countries to Europe.
With the Strait of Hormuz shut, the Bab al-Mandeb’s importance has only grown.
Saudi Arabia, which has traditionally also relied principally on the Strait of Hormuz to export its oil, has increasingly turned to its Red Sea port of Yanbu to ship crude out through the Bab al-Mandeb.
For this, it has turned to the East West Pipeline, running from the Abqaiq oil processing centre close to the Gulf to Yanbu. The 1,200km (745-mile) pipeline is operated by Saudi oil giant Aramco.
Where the East West Pipeline transferred an average of 770,000 barrels per day to the Red Sea coast in January and February, according to energy intelligence firm Kpler, Saudi Arabia cranked up its use in March, when Hormuz was shut. By the end of March, oil was flowing at the pipeline’s capacity of 7 million bpd – more than ever before.
How could Iran and its allies shut the Bab al-Mandeb?
The Houthis have already shown they can do it. During Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza, they blocked the Bab al-Mandeb for what they described as ships associated with Israel or the US.
Because of frequent attacks on shipping, insurers refused to offer a reduction in traffic. In May 2025, the US and the Houthis agreed to a ceasefire, and the Yemeni group has since reopened the Bab al-Mandeb.
Amid the US-Israel war on Iran, the Houthis have again shown how they could disrupt the waterway, as they did during the genocidal war on Gaza.
Between late March and the April 8 ceasefire, the Houthis fired missiles and drones at Israel, pointing to their effective entry into the war – for now, against Israel, not the US. On June 8, the Houthis confirmed that they had again fired missiles towards Israel and threatened to shut the Bab al-Mandeb Strait for Israeli ships.
Nabeel Khoury, a former US diplomat, told Al Jazeera in April that missile attacks launched by the Houthis against Israel, by themselves, amounted to “token participation, not full participation”.
“They have fired a couple of missiles as a warning because of all the talk of potential escalation. There are US troops on their way to the region. There’s been talk that if there is no agreement, there might be a full-scale attack on Iran as has not been seen so far,” the former deputy chief of mission in Yemen told Al Jazeera.
If the Houthis truly wanted to enter the war, their weapon would be the blockage of the Bab al-Mandeb.
“All they have to do is fire at a couple of ships coming through, and that would lead to the arrest of all commercial shipping through the Red Sea,” he said. “That would be a red line, and then you would see attacks against Yemen [from the US and Israel] very quickly.”
What would a closure of the Bab al-Mandeb mean for the world?
Elisabeth Kendall, a Middle East specialist and the president of Girton College at Cambridge University, told Al Jazeera that if the Red Sea strait is blocked, it would create a “nightmare scenario”.
“Because if you have restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz at the same time as restrictions are escalating in the Bab al-Mandeb, then you really will disrupt, if not cripple, trade towards Europe. So this is a knife-edge, really, depending on what happens next,” she told Al Jazeera.
Kendall, however, said that while this was a “sweet spot” for the Houthis, the Yemeni group might not want to “provoke a Saudi or indeed a broader response”.